Publication time: 5 July 2008, 09:20
Informed source inside the intelligence service (Mukhabarat) of the Caucasus Emirate reported to Kavkaz Center news and information agency that the Caucasus intelligence has received the confirmed operative information about upcoming military operation that Russia will conduct against Georgia. According to Caucasus intelligence agents, Putin had made the political decision to launch war operations even before Medvedev was elected president of the Russian Federation. After the castling from the Kremlin to Moscow’s “White House” (the building of the Russian Duma/parliament) Moscow’s plans concerning Georgia did not change.
Sources of the Caucasus Emirate intelligence services reported that intense preparation for a war has been underway on all levels for the past several months. Bringing Russian railroad troops to Abkhazia is a part of that scheme. Putin is directly in charge of the preparations for the war.
Operative information points at the fact that the main objective of the war operation is to seize the Kodori Gorge and to optimally weaken Saakashvili’s regime or to overthrow Georgian President Saakashvili.
If the political and military situation during the war operation to seize the Kodori Gorge is successful for Russia, then the plan implies that the war operations get spread across the entire territory of Georgia involving total destabilization of the situation all across the country and de facto disintegration of Georgia.
The war operations are supposed to start in the period between August 20 and September 10, 2008. The beginning of the war will be preceded by the increase in the intensity and the number of clashes between Abkhazians and Georgians, and a series of provocations (terrorist acts) involving human casualties on the territory of Abkhazia as well as on the territory of Russia.
According to one of the scenarios, a large-scale terrorist act is supposed to take place in Sochi, which Georgian secret services will be blamed for.
The operation will have the nature of blitzkrieg. Offensive operations involving forcing the Georgian troops out of the Kodori Gorge (Upper Abkhazia) are supposed to be completed within 7 to 10 days since the start of the operation.
Aerial strikes on Kutaisi and Tbilisi have been planned. Shock troops of Abkhazian (Russian) forces will start advancing towards Kutaisi. In case Georgians put up weak resistance, the city of Kutaisi will be taken. The objective is to create the conditions for further political bargaining with Georgian central government in Tbilisi.
According to Moscow’s plan, once Kodori is seized, the war operations are supposed to be launched in the Tskhinvali direction (South Ossetia) in order to force the Georgian troops as well as Georgian population out of the region.
Sources in the Caucasus intelligence service point out that Moscow has used its operative channels to make a deliberate information leak for Washington about the inevitable military operation against Tbilisi.
In the Kremlin’s opinion, at this time the escalation of military tensions in the South Caucasus and especially in Georgia would be extremely disadvantageous for the United States. This is why Moscow reasonably believes that Washington may offer a reasonable trade-off in the number of issues that would be in Russia’s interest in exchange for Moscow’s renunciation of its plans to conduct a war operation against Georgia.